Offseason Position Discussion : 3B

 

Gore still here? Ok we can move forward with this.  

2024 was a mess for the Nats at 3B.  They thought Trey Lipscomb who had an intersting end to 2023 might step in or for some reason known only to them, that never-was and clear never-would-be Nick Senzel might hold it down. These failed leaving Ildermo Vargas and Jose Tena manning the hot corner at the end of that year and leaving 2025 up in the air. 

The Nats responded by signing way too old Paul DeJong and his non-existant bat to pair with probably nothing Jose Tena. DeJong could still field but couldn't hit and being old he got hurt. Tena was nothing and again the Nats were scrambling having Amed Rosario play there until he was traded and former top prospect, now prospect of mild interest, Brady House got his chance. House also didn't hit but fielded ok making a nice failure bookend to the season

Presumed Plan : 

House plays 3B and they sign some trash FA to back him up.  Why assume they'll try something differently

Reasoning behind Presumed Plan : 

Unlike Lipscomb and Tena, House, if not as touted as he once was, is still a real prospect. He really did handle AAA last year in over 60 games and the team wants a good long look at him in the majors. Since he can field this is a pretty easy call as he's not going to be a huge hole like an all-bat 3B might be if he doesn't get it at the plate. 

 

The Nats don't seem to be taking on any major money and hope that House is here the whole year so it makes sense 3B will be whoever they pick up for the 2B/3B or SS back-up roles. 

My Take : 

It's a better position than they've been in since signing actual "might be good" Candelario years back. House can play 3B and maybe he can hit. The fancy stats read as a guy who swings pretty well but hasn't acclimated to major league pitching yet, which is standard fare for call-ups so we really won't know until this year if the issues (not IDing pitches well at all is the big one - too few walks too many Ks, not quite squaring up) will clear up with time and experience. Clearly you let him play and see what happens. 

It'd be nice to have an actual guy who can play everyday back him up but this team isn't going to pay "everyday" money to a guy not playing everyday if they are rebuilding again. So whatever. If anything happens to House (or any of the IF) this path will lead to months of terrible ball with no upside and one can hope they understand that and are looking to put a decent product on the field for the new admin's first year but maybe not. Probably not. 

Argh, I don't want to go through this all again.  

Pining for the F(j)ords

The Nats don't have a lot of good pitchers.  Gore yes. Brad Lord probably and... uhhh Cavalli likely, Beeter looks good... uhhh Henry?   Anyway Ferrer was a young lefty (and MAN they do NOT have a lot of lefties) with good fancy stats that I also liked. But they sent him away to Seattle for a catcher, Harry Ford. 

So first what does this signal? Rebuild... probably 

Ferrer is only 25 with plenty of team control. Given the Nats lack of LH relief he's the type of guy you keep around. Ford is a prospect still and several years younger than Ferrer. He's more the type you are planning on the next 10 years, not the next 5. However I will say Ford is basically major league ready with the bat so it's not like he is going to spend the next couple years in AAA. 

But that also means he's pushing Ruiz and everyone else out (sorry Millas!) which again is very "rebuild" coded. 

 

Second is Harry Ford any good?  As a hitter yeah probably.  As a catcher... 

 As a hitter the guy has got a GREAT eye and the question is how good can the bat be and in what way. It seems like he could hit for power. It seems like he could hit for avearge. He's one of those "fast" catchers who will run well and steal bases early in their career. If it all comes together - unlikely but anything can happen -  super star! If one thing comes together - likely power - a solid player. If nothing does, still probably usable because of that eye. 

But this is all based around being behind the plate and there isn't a strong consensus if that will happen. He excels at parts of the game, fielding in front of the plate, strong arm, but lags behind in, you know, the CATCHER, parts of being a catcher. Still does that first part mean he could possibly move positions? Is this a Biggio situation where we see Ford at like 2B?  Hell the Nats also lack a 1B. 

I think they point is if he can hit - either for power or average or both (though again more likely power) then the Nats have a lot of options to find a place for him. Catcher if he can play it, 1B, DH, 2B if they want to move someone. If he can't hit - well you have to hope he gets better behind the plate because he can still have value as an average fielding catcher with a good eye. 

It's not a bad bet to take for the Nats as his ceiling is higher than Ferrer's but again it suggest the Nats are not going to worry about the next couple years. I think this may be the start of an exodus.  Let's see what the next 1-2 moves are though. 

Offseason Position Discussion : SS

It 2024 CJ Abrams flashed greatness, with a .295 7 homer April and hitting .373 / .464 / .663 in May earning him a trip to the All-Star Game and getting Nats fans excited about his potential. The only problem was... well... he might have been the worst fielding shortstop in baseball in years. 

The plan for 2025 was to start him at SS and hopefully watch him solidify his position as an MLB offensive star while playing some better defense.  This didn't quite happen. His 2025 at the plate mirrored his 2024 but with the highs and lows muted.  This left him above average at the plate but not close to stardom.  His fielding did improve but this just left him the worst fielding shortstop in baseball THIS year. Meanwhile Nasim Nunez flashed his incredible glove while putting up good enough offensive numbers leading Nats fans to wonder if a position shift is in order

Presumed Plan : 

Wide open but I'll say Abrams plays SS while Nunez enters super sub role. 

Reasoning behind Presumed Plan : 

Nunez only played 24 games last year to add to his 23 in 2024. With that little time in the majors and very middling minor league batting stats, it's fair to wonder if he could in fact hit in the majors despite a very short impressive run late last year. 

Since you can't rely on Nunez to not be TERRIBLE at the plate yet you have to hold onto Abrams and let him see if he can improve his fielding with the new regime. Another player with questionable motivation the new organization will likely want a crack at a guy with super star potential to see if they can unlock it. 

 

And like in 2B comments, there are bigger fish to fry than an overall league average position.  

My Take :   

I don't buy Nunez at the plate and won't until I see him for half a season so I'm not very enthused to shift Abrams off SS.  But I do admit the logic in it and Nunez has to get that half a season at the plate somehow? Super sub can do it but a set position would be better.  

Abrams can be special so it seems likely to me that the new organization will want their own long look at him.  To me that means at SS first, but it's quite possible they've seen enough there. He is REALLY bad by all measures. He has no instincts which matters so much at SS. I mean he's so bad that HE'S the one that should be playing first, not Garcia. So if there's a position change that's where I probably lean. 

And a position change could be in order. Or a trade! Abrams is arbitration eligible and a free agent after 2028.  This year could up his value a lot OR it could set it at something lower if he just repeats 2025. That's the gamble. 

The way I see it Abrams' situation will tell us a lot about the Nationals new organization as a whole.  Are they in true evaluation mode trying to get THEIR feel of these guys? (Abrams at SS again)  Are they trying to optimize now (Abrams at 1B or DH even?) while they figure out the next steps?  Or are they ready to tear down what's here and look beyond 2028 (trade of Abrams) 

Me I'd prefer the second "optimize now and figure out if it's worth going for something in the next few years" so I guess I'd want to see Abrams moved off SS for whatever position (1B, DH, 2B?, 3B?) they choose not to deal with in 2026 while looking at other stuff. 

Offseason Position Discussion : 2B

After a rebound in 2024 to good stats at the plate and in the field, the Nats 2nd base situation was well set.  Luis Garcia can play there so Luis Garcia will play there. Ideally he would have stepped up again in 2025 but the opposite happened and a slight regression knocked him back to basically average at the plate and 2024 turned out to be the unsurprisingly fluke with the glove. But at least it was something that passed the season without worry. That's something right? 

Presumed Plan : 

Luis Garcia plays second base. Some FA pick-up and/or Nunez back him up, similar to 2025. 

Reasoning behind Presumed Plan : 

Arguably every IF position but SS including catcher and both starting and relief pitching are bigger issues than what's going on at second base. There is no reason for the Nats to make a change for likely minimal gain.

What's going on at second is you have a guy who can hit sometimes and doesn't field very well and overall seems only mildly motivated to reach his potential. It's a recipe for a below average 2B that will remain below average but one that isn't forcing you to do anything. 

If Garcia was better you might try to deal him, but no one is going to give you much for a below average 2B. If Garcia was more expensive you might try to do something, but he's just hitting arbitration for the first time this year. 

My Take :   

There are some interesting ideas on what to do with Luis with Nunez having his hot finish and Abrams' inability to field SS holding down an otherwise good player. Moving Luis to first and Abrams to second so Nunez (an actual good fielder) might make sense.  A .252 / .289 / .412  16 homer line for a first baseman would probably put him at about the same 20-25 range he sits now.  The big difference is while at 2nd best he's about 3 wins worse than the 3rd or 4th best 2B despite being 15+ ranks below them, at 1B he'd likely be 4-5 wins worse.  Not THAT much worse but you'd probably HAVE to get that offensive improvement you'd hope to see. And we assume shifting two guys to easier positions would hide their glove issues but they are still playing new positions.  It's a gamble.  Might be worth it if the Nats commit to fixing the pitching in the off-season, but if not it's more shifting deck chairs.  

I think the general idea with Luis is you try to get his head focused on hitting and fielding better with the new regime, who he might gel with, and then you evaluate if you want to keep him around.  At only 26 next year there's still a chance he becomes a better player and I'm interested to see what another group can do with him, having seen Robles, a similar question mark, blossom in his limited time away from Rizzo and Davey. Plus a better 2B would likely get you more back than a 1B with the same stats. 

 Let Garcia keep being not a big problem and maybe he surprises.  

Offseason Position Discussion : 1B

A lot of things went wrong in 2025 but none were so clearly made to work NOW and so clearly a failure then the Nats' answer at 1B.  The Nats brought in Nathaniel Lowe with a trade* to man the position in 2025-2026 likely with an eye for having him possibly be there beyond. He had been a sneaky good 1B, one that ranked 5-10 overall with consistent solid hitting since arriving in the majors and glove that he worked into average to good. There was one thing they didn't consider though...

Nathaniel Lowe is a dog. 

In the only possible explanation, after struggling early Lowe stopped trying on a team heading nowhere showing terribly in the field and the plate. The Nats had no recourse but the jettison him for what ever they could get.  He immediately started trying again for the Red Sox putting up decent numbers and solidifying himself as a jackass. But knowing that doesn't help the Nats much. They are now unexpectedly without a 1B for 2026 with his positional replacement Josh Bell, who was signed for a 1 year stop DH gap, also gone.  

Presumed Plan : 

A FA stop gap with a back-up from within or a stretch trial for someone here with a FA stop gap DH as the quick back-up replacement. 

Reasoning behind Presumed Plan : 

There's nothing in the minors. The Nats tried Andres Chaparro at the position but he didn't look good at the plate and isn't a natural fielder. He might turn the bat around to not be a total embarrassment but you don't want to go into a season relying on that. Yohandy Morales looked like he might be on the fast track for a trial but he struggled in AAA.  Completely reasonable for a 23 year old, but it does mean he doesn't factor into 2026 plans. 

There's nothing obvious here. You could move James Wood here now, but that seems premature given his age and you don't want to rock the boat with your best young player. You could move Daylen Lile here now, but you don't want to rock the boat with a young player just coming into his own. You could move Luis Garcia there now, but you have to imagine it's easier to find a 1B than a 2B. 

 So what's left is a FA. A FA 1B would make the most sense letting the Nats try to find a bat at DH and if the 1B fails maybe that DH takes over, but a free agent DH that could take over 1B is also a possibility.

My Take :  

Two positions in and there is nothing good or easy to speak of. The Nats need to fill this position and can't internally so to the FA pool they go.  They likely aren't serious about winning in 2026 so a Ryan O'Hearn (the best non Alonso option with Naylor off the table) isn't going to be a target. Is there any reason not to just bring back Josh Bell, a guy you like and has shown he'll play here and actually try? Guys like Carlos Santana, Paul Goldschmidt, and Justin Turner, are very slightly better than Bell and offer some veteran presence but could also just crash out. Rhys Hoskins and Luis Arraez make interesting gambles, especially Arraez whose batting approach resembles Lile's an approach that most players can't make work in the long term but he has, but both may be looking for multi-year deals, even if cheap ones, the Nats aren't likely to give. So after that no, there's not really a reason not to just bring back Bell. 

The specific DH field is weak. Schwarber who will get paid, Ozuna who I don't want, then nothing. So I don't like the FA DH route. 

I think looking at this I like Arraez for 2+ years if that what it takes but I'm not going to blame the Nats if they don't go this route. I also kind of think there might be a 2B around late in FA that would be worth grabbing.  We should keep an eye on that. However, I think most likely is they just sit and watch FA and in early March they grab the best hitter they can for a 1 year "prove it" deal and they figure out what that means for 1B.  I don't like it but I also am not going to fool myself to think that there's anything out there the Nats should go for or that they would go for it if they could. 

 

 *for Robert Garcia who immediately showed he was a very good lefty reliever - the type that would have likely brought back more in trade than Lowe.  

Offseason Position Discussion : C

 Huh. That was a longer break than I thought.  Thanks for the kind words in the comments. Yes, I'm not as motivated to post as I have been in the past, but rest assured I won't end the blog with a ghosting. First I'll try a couple new things if I really can't keep up what I've done in the past. Then I'll let you know if that ain't working for me. 

Speaking of what I've done in the past - Off-season position reviews. 

 

The Nats catcher situation was bad. Having your catchers hit .227 / .270 / .323 with at best mediocre defense is pretty terrible.  Hopes that Keibert was a victim of past injuries and his solid start was the "real" Ruiz were dashed on the rocks of the rest of the season. A Ruiz concussion mid-season forced more time for Riley Adams, who actually played more games at the position than anyone, but he lost his pop making him a worse hitter than Ruiz.  After the All-Star break, Drew Millas starting playing about every 3rd game and did pretty well but broke a finger at the end of August and was done for the season 

Presumed Plan : 

I'm not sure it's clear. If I were to guess I would say they are eyeing playing Drew Millas a lot more, even possibly letting him have a limited starting role (think 120 games) and jettisoning of one of Ruiz/Adams, likely Adams. It's possible that the one that stays behind doesn't even start the season in the majors and instead the Nats bring up a seasoned C to back-up/mentor Millas.

Reasoning behind Presumed Plan : 

The plan for catcher that seemed so sure in 2021 has gone off the rails. Ruiz, who was solid all-around around that time, has regressed in all facets of the game. He simply cannot be assumed to have a starting position anymore. Adams, who was seen as a reasonable back-up, adding the punch that Ruiz never had, has lost that punch. While he's held his skills behind the plate, those were never good in the first place. At 30 mid-season next year you can't be thinking there's a renaissance happening. 

So Millas wins the position by default. He did well in a brief audition. He's at a make it or break it age on if he'll ever be worth something to this team.  The Nats have plenty of other issues to deal with that if they have an internal option they are likely to go with it. He's a solid defender with a good eye and looking at baseball in general they could do a lot worse that having a guy like that behind the plate as long as he can hit in the mid .200s.  

As for the back-up idea. I think Ruiz/Adams serving as back-up does nothing for them or the team.  You want Ruiz to figure out his issues, if that's possible, so that means playing time. He should be in the minors.  However, his contract might keep him up with the team.  If not, a guy like Luke Maile - very solid defender for many years, could fit in well giving Millas the best chance to succeed. 

My Take :  

Ruiz looks like toast and the Nats can't spend anymore serious major league time hoping he gets it.  And him as a back-up - bad hitter, bad defender - makes zero sense. So a test of the new regime will be where Ruiz ends up.  If his contract keeps him in DC that's a strike against them. I definitely prefer a veteran here - the type of vet Ruiz didn't really have himself with Adams serving as primary back-up for the past 3 years. 

Adams should be gone. It's that simple. Without the power I'm not sure what he offers other than a warm body.  He had a good long trial here.  It didn't work out. 

While I think Ruiz will have a chance to earn a spot - I also think Millas is simply better and unless he shows he's not recovered from his injury he should have the role. That is unless the team spends money or trades for something here but I doubt that. 

Monday Quickie - (former) Nats in the playoffs

If rooting for (or against) former Nats in the playoffs is fun for you heres the list 

Blue Jays : Max! although they left him off the ALDS roster as he struggled at the end of the year. Jacob Barnes would also get a ring if they are generous (release by Tor in August) 

Yankees : Amed Rosario is it, though they have regular season Nats villain DJ LeMahieu and post-season Nats hero, Trent Grisham. 

Tigers : "Garbage" Kyle Finnegan was acquired by Detroit in a trade. Tanner Rainey pitched two terrible innings for the Tigers, and has not yet been released I don't think - but he's not in the playoffs or anything. 

Mariners : Super fun Davey mortal enemy Victor Robles is the only one here

 

Phillies : You know by now that the Phillies are built on the back of the Nats with Bryce, Trea, Schwarbs all in the starting line-up.  Former Nats prospect Jesus Luzardo starts for them and Joe Ross was also on the team this year.  The Nattiest team in the playoffs!

Brewers : Almost Nats free but ol' friend Erick Fedde threw some decent innings for them before being DFA'd to Nashville right before the end of the season. 

Cubs : Nats free! Yes Mike Soroka is on the Cubs!  Nats are everywhere! 

Dodgers : You know mid-season acquisition Alex Call is playing important innings for LA in the playoffs. Did you know that they gave Eddie Rosario a brief shot at DH this year? Worked out like you think it would. You know Blake Trienen is still blowing games in the pen but did you remember Luis Garcia was a Dodger this year before he was a Nat before he was an Angel?