Those monsters! Not Bryce! Not Bryce!

Bryce Harper since April 27th. .143 / .271 / .286

Sad thing is I'm looking so much at terrible hitting stats these days I had to sit here for a second and think if a .286 SLG was actually all that bad.

It feels awful but that was basically a throw-away game. They were fine losing it (and they did). Its not the end of the world.  Let's re-iterate the point from yesterday. You can win enough games to make the playoffs even with 3 mediocre months of baseball. The Nats haven't even finished the 2nd. As bad as it looks now, there's plenty of time for this to become water under the bridge.  Thank the Nats that went 7-2 to start the year and 10-4 from late April to early May for that.

Think about that.  The Nats finished up a 10-4 run... 11 days ago.  Not even 2 weeks ago. Remember all the untucking?

Of course there are more hurdles to overcome.  Mattheus broken hand (given that athelets have done this numerous times over the years you think clubhouses would have a designated padded punching wall). Werth continuing to age like the finest China doll. Rizzo refusing to give in on his initial plan for the season (one LH in pen and he's a mediocre long man, H-Rod still there to do... something?, a bench made up of uniforms stuffed with straw) that at this point has gone terribly awry.

But still, after all this, one game over .500. If they can pull out a win in either of the next two games, they'll be at .500 staring at 11 of the next 16 at home with series versus the Phillies, Mets and Twins in there. All teams worse than them.  An extended West Coast swing is not about gaining ground, it's about holding it. They can still manage that. Then comes the time when they should make their move.  We hope.

There's something wrong with your starter(s)

Memorial Day.  Memorial Day.  Memorial Day.

What's that? Memorial Day is next week? 

Flag Day. Flag Day. Flag Day.

The Nats are a .500 team. That's what the record says. But beyond that the Nats are playing like a .500 team. Losing 2 of 3 on the road to the Dodgers and splitting with the Padres? That's what I'd expect from a .500 team. Things have shaken out enough to tell that it is primarily (only?) an offensive issue. Ok, well the fielding could be better, but it's not the pitching staff's fault, yesterday excluded.

We've lambasted the bench several times ("Fun fact" : since saying that Tyler Moore should be sent down on the morning of the 8th he's actually hit MUCH worse.  1 hit in 24 ABs with 9 Ks, for a line of .042 / .042 / .042. If you are hoping they'll pull the trigger on DLing Espinosa consider that they still haven't touched this guy.) but they are still just the bench.  Let's take a look at how the offensive players ranked at their position in OPS and WAR (bWAR for those that care about such things), as of last night. This is based on 100 ABs by they way.

Suzuki : 

OPS : 8th of 13

WAR : 8th of 13

8th is a little unfair to Suzuki they way the numbers break.  In reality he's a pretty average catcher, which means he can't hit and is not much of a fielder. But it could be worse right?

LaRoche :

OPS : 11th of 14

WAR : 9th of 14

Sorry, Adam. April counts. Last year Adam rose to the top in part because everyone else sunk. This year Votto is healthy, Rizzo and Alonso are rising, Gonzo is NL full-time. Say goodbye to "one of the best first baseman in the league" LaRoche and welcome back "average hitting, good fielding" LaRoche.

Espinosa :

OPS : 14th of 14

WAR : 12th of 14

Why is Espy still around?  Despite being possibly the worst everyday offensive player his D ranks highly enough he's not the worst 2nd baseman in the NL. While the rest of the infield has is either regressing or not shining defensively he's still right in that department. However, man is he bad at the plate. Given his history (minor and major) it screams injury which we all in fact know he has, so he's still here because Rizzo really thinks any guy he can bring up won't match Espy in his combination of skills. Scary thought.

Desmond :

OPS : 4th of 14

WAR : 6th of 14

Bet you thought he was higher. To be fair to Ian there's a big drop offensively after him. Then again Tulo and Jean Segura as a clear step above offensively.  He's not the huge plus he was last year especially since his 2012 fine fielding stats look flukish now, but he's the 2nd best guy on the team right now.

Zimmerman :

OPS : 6th of 14

WAR : 8th of 14

I mean, it's fine and all but this isn't what he's getting paid the big bucks for.  Plus everything is saying the GG days are behind Ryan Zimmerman, even at this young age. He hasn't had superior range since 2010.

Bryce :

OPS : 1st of 13

WAR : 3rd of 13

A legitimitely great all-around player. 

Span :

OPS : 9th of 13

WAR : 7th of 13

The guy can field, I'll give him that. Can't hit though. He's right behind Ruggiano and Pollock who are really fill-in players. For those thinking he'll get better take another look. 2010, 2011 and 2 months of 2013 tell you one thing. 2012 tells you another (and all that is telling you is that he's average). A couple more XBH maybe but this is Span. 

Werth :

OPS : 15th of 16

WAR : 14th of 16

Just as bad as Espy? No. The numbers are unkind to Werth as he's probably a good week from being 10th. And RF hit much better than 2B. So it's a soft 15th, I guess. Still you'd want more for your cash and the future's so dim, you have to wear a miner's helmet.  He's 34 (today! Happy Birthday you cash-sucking, half-time playing, one big HR hitting son of a bitch!) and getting paid 16 million dollars. Next year he'll get paid 20. Then 21 the year after that. Then 21 the year after that. Did I get them all? Nope. Then 21 the year after that.

What's it all end up saying? Yes the bench is failing miserably and Espy is hitting like he's part of that bench, but virtually no one else is hitting expectations. Bryce is great, Desmond is one of the better shortstops, and Suzuki (miracle of miracles because I would have pegged him 1st as likely to be a disappointment) is average. The other 5 hitters are disappointing in one way or another this year.

The Nats had a good offense last year, maybe very good. But to get to that point they needed everyone but Bryce firing on all cylinders. They needed several "best years" to mix with a team that had nearly no disappointments. A regression to a more average offense was in the cards even if expectations were mostly met.  But this is the nightmare scenario. No one surpassing expectations. Many falling below them.

Panic time? Only for those that were 100 wins or bust. For everyone else, it's still ok.  Most playoff teams have 2-3 months of average play during the course of a season. The issue is, of course, if you have your 3 months to start the season, you have no room for error the rest of the way. You can't compensate for a late-season injury or couple weeks of bad luck. The Nats don't NEED to turn it on right now, but it's... let's say "advisable" that they do so.

So what's the problem now?

He should have shut them out? He didn't go 9? He didn't go strikeout strikeout after the error?

Pouring

There are no good options. I don't just mean for Espinosa here, I mean in general. I know you all think that Espinosa is the worst thing since bread wasn't sliced (which is silly, because except for processed sandwich bread what bread do you actually prefer to come sliced? Are you the reason all the crusty fresh-baked loaves in my grocery store are 95% sliced? If so I hate you.) but there are three batters hitting worse than he is (.502) in May by OPS. The three? Roger Bernadina (.452), Steve Lombardozzi (.441), and Tyler Moore (.315). In the matter of one offseason the bench went from "secret weapon" to "black pit of despair" in no time flat. Whenever anyone has gone down they've been replaced by a terrible offensive player.

I'm not surprised this happened to Tyler Moore, but Lombo is a little surprise and Bernie's is a a flat out shock to me. He didn't just regress from his best year, he free falled.  The knee-jerk reaction is to say "small sample size" and maybe this is just a fluke.  Ok, let's see then, how much is this BABIP? Given their average BABIPs (I used .300 for Moore and Lombo, .290 for Bernie (and Espinosa for the hell of it)) they would be hitting this: Lombo .271, Espinosa .234, Moore .179, Bernie .178. Without looking any further that would explain why Espy isn't at his usual "just decent enough average not to turn fans against him" and Lombo isn't at his "deceptively high enough average to make fans want to see him play everyday even though all of those hits are singles". But it doesn't help Moore and Bernie much.  Why? As we explained earlier with Moore - too few balls in play. Too many Ks.  Moore is striking out an alarming 44% of the time, but Bernie is up there, too, near 35%.

And this tells us something important about strikeouts.  Everyone hates the fact Danny Espinosa strikes out so much (around 25% of the time right now) But it's at those rates getting around 30% and higher that you need to worry about K's. Adam LaRoche is heating up in May with his hitting streak and a .356 average in the month. He's still striking out 26% of the time this month.  Desmond and Zimm have been the best non-Bryce hitters on the team this year and they've both struck out nearly as often as Danny. It's not the Ks.

What is it with Danny?  Right now it looks like an inability to drive the ball. LD-rate at 9.8% which is significantly lower than the past couple years (16.1% and 18.9%) . Same with HR/FB rate, 8.1% after years of 13.5% and 12.6%.  It could be just small sample size. Maybe. Patience is wearing thin but I'll keep saying I think we should wait until Memorial Day. You can have a bad month. You CAN have two but at that point you may need to make a decision, which would almost certainly be a DL decision, because if you have a third then half the year is gone.

So who replaces him? Minor leaguers? Sure there are guys hitting ok Rhymes & Kobernus come to mind but neither is someone you feel good enough about to pull Espinosa right now. (and no one fields like Espinosa).  Rendon? He's a 3rd baseman to this franchise. He's played only 4 times at 2nd in the minors this year.

And speaking of having no good options, Detwiler and Ramos went down. You'll probably see Solano for Ramos. He is hitting .167 / .196 / .204.  Why him if he's hitting that bad? Because the other AAA catcher is Maldonado and he's .098 / .159 / .098. Sandy Leon? He's hitting this year like he hit in every year that wasn't 2012 (poorly).  As for Detwiler the Nats don't have a real prospect pitching well above High-A right now. Daniel Rosenbaum is doing ok, but he's a paradox.  He's not good enough that you expect him to stick (the Rockies had him as a Rule V this year and tossed him back) but he hasn't started his clock yet so you hate to do that just for a spot start. Look instead for one of the terrible veteran AAA arms (Young, Maya, Perry and Ohlendorf) to step in.

1-2 vs the Dodgers isn't bad. But they really need a strong showing vs the Padres with the Giants waiting at the end of the road.

Hey, Haren is good again! So that's good.

It's Kershaw and it wasn't a bad day so what are you going to do? Since the Nats don't work walks they weren't likely to get to the pen early.  So you cross your fingers, hope to string together a few hits or get a timely XBH and that your pitcher was doing well enough to win.  They got the latter but not the former.

The latter is good news though.  After looking like he was done a month ago, Haren seems better. Mostly his control is back and that's enough to avoid the catastrophes that were taking place to start the season. Two walks in his last 4 games. But also he's not getting hit as hard as before.  Three out of four games with  2 or fewer hits categorized as line drives. He might not be over that hump just yet (the Tigers had 9 such hits which is usually trash fire territory) but he's trending in the right direction.

Any other notes?

While it's unfair to judge any hitter after facing Kershaw. Tyler Moore went 0-fer again. He's currently 4th worst in WAR in fangraphs and while it's real unfair to judge something like that now, there are a couple things to note. 

• Usually if you are getting screwed with WAR it's because they hate your fielding too much. 40 games of fielding information is like a couple weeks of hitting at best. Way too variable to be certain of. While they don't like Moore's fielding its not driving this bus.
• WAR is a playing time dependent stat so the other guys that are up there are mostly every day players. The fact that Moore can be 4th worst in 1/3rd of the at bats of these guys is pretty depressive (that's the opposite of impressive, right?)

Couldn't figure a Haren win over Kershaw but still I wanted a 2-1 series win so the Nats  need one tonight. Can Detwiler outduel Strasburg West?  Normally I wouldn't like the Nats chances but coming off the DL we have no idea what kind of Greinke we'll see.

Oh Bryce

You silly kid. Some guys you put at first base because they don't have the talent to play elsewhere. Other you put at first base because you don't have room for them elsewhere.  And a select few play first base because if you put them in a position where they can run into walls at full speed they'll do it. I'm not saying Bryce should play first now, but there's something to be said about keeping this kid healthy and "lucite box with holes punched in it" is still not an official position.

Otherwise good start. ZNN was fantastic again. Ok there was a lot of stranded runners again (you aren't going to scatter hits forever) but once again he had no walks and only 4 3-ball counts (Fun Fact #1 : he gave up a hit in each one saying to me - I'd rather throw a meatball than give up a walk. Not the best 3-ball approach but if it's what's keeping him not walking people in general throw them meatballs.  Fun Fact #2 : ZNN has only gone 3-0 to one five batters this season. That's a commitment to throwing strikes.  Was better when I thought it was 1 though)

The offense was more timely than impressive, taking advantage of another team's errors for once, but whatever. They win.

Tonight it's Kershaw vs Haren. Haren's pitched better lately but around that quality Atlanta game was a couple of outings that were as much luck as good pitching. Last game, to me, looked like a Tiger crushing that just never quite came together in time. So we'll see. The Dodgers aren't a particularly good offensive team but they've been hotter recently. Kershaw of course is Kershaw and we'll see if the Nats can scratch out a couple or catch him on a bad day.

Monday Quickie

Strasburg is dealing with a moving target right now. Remember how it was the first inning that was Strasburg's issue?  Then that cleared up so everyone moved onto first batter of an inning? And that wasn't an issue yesterday so it is now composure after an error is made? I'm going to guess next start, he loses 3-2, he's fine after two errors are made but he gives up 2 homeruns so now THAT'S the issue with him.

Everyone expects him to be great so if he's good, that's not good enough, and if he's not good like on Saturday, it's the most terrible thing in the world. It's unfair. It's also the life of an ace pitcher. He reminds me a lot of Zack Greinke.  Zack had a breakout year in 2009, and since 2010 he's been the 8th most valuable pitcher in regards to WAR. We can quibble about one thing or another but he's pitched like a #1 but thanks to a little bad luck, a couple bad teams, and an attitude that doesn't mesh with what we expect from our ballplayers he's not seen in the same light as some of his contemporaries (at least by the fans).

Strasburg didn't sign a big contract. He's not the veteran arm. He's not the only young important player struggling. Yet he's the guy getting singled out. You want to be the best this is how you are going to get treated.

Part of me thinks though this is a smokescreen to cover up the fact that even though they are in the worst division in baseball the Nats still are only 3 games over .500.  That's right worst division in baseball.  Oh ok, the AL West is giving them a run for their money but here is how each place team ranks by winning percentage against their counterparts in other divisions.

Braves .568 - 6th out of 6
Nats .541 - 5th out of 6
Phillies  .462 - 6th out of 6
Mets .412 - 5th out of 6
Marlins .289 - 5th out of 6

The Marlins might be the worst team in the majors. The Mets pitching behind Matt Harvey is terrible (their 2nd best starter has a 4.63 ERA).  The Phillies offense looks every bit as old as you expected. And the Braves offense has moved past the crazy Justin Upton start but is not yet over the terrible BJ Upton one.
And yet here the Nats are, presumptive 100 win team and World Series favorite, just better than middling. Thank god for the AL Central (5-0 vs Sox and Tigers), am I right?

The Nats have scored 2 or fewer runs in 18 of 37 games. 18! The only team worse is the Marlins. You don't win those games.  It's not one thing its everything. Some of it is timing. Bryce is super hot? LaRoche can't hit. LaRoche starts hitting? Bryce slumps (really - .107 / .235 / .214 over the past 2 weeks - that's how hot he was that his stats still look good). Some of it is injuries. They had injuries last year, but the bench has gone from best to worst. Werth is presumably slowed again by injuries, bad since mid April and now out. Some of it is just bad hitting. Danny still hasn't found his stride and Span and Suzuki have been just as bad for roughly a month, cooling down fast after hot starts.

The short answer though is they don't walk enough not to hit. When they don't hit they don't get on base and when they hit the occasional XBH (their power is still ok) there's no one on base to come home. They are perfectly ok with RISP (6th in the NL in OPS) but they never get the chance to have these at bats (dead last in the NL in PAs with RISP).  The team needs to start hitting better because they don't have the type of player that will work a lot of walks, nor do they inclination to teach patience.

7-3 for May which is still good but it's also exactly where I pegged them to be, except they'd be coming off a sweep of the Cubs.  Predicted 6-4 for this away trip. Let's see what happens. A few quick losses and this could get ugly fast.