Nationals Baseball: Fun with arbitrary cut-offs

Thursday, September 01, 2011

Fun with arbitrary cut-offs

Since 2008 there are 11 pitchers currently season-age 27 or younger that have pitched at least 690 innings with an ERA <4.00.

They are :
Tim Lincecum
Felix Hernandez
Jon Lester
Matt Cain
Cole Hamels
Zack Greinke
Ubaldo Jimenez
John Danks
Matt Garza
Chad Billingsly


John Lannan.

Yay John!

(I'm not saying John is as good as these guys. All have pitched at least 50 more innings and 8 out of the "other" 10 have significantly better career ERAs. However I do think that John's accomplishment of pitching so many quality innings, even if the fact that those innings ended up as quality is inexplicable to some, at such a young age is kind of big deal. Can it happen with average pitchers? Sure. Going back to 1994 you find Bobby Jones did it. Joey Hamilton. But the vast majority of guys that are able to do this are very good to great pitchers. In other words - it's not easy to do at all.)


Wally said...

But ...

Uhmm ...

See, the thing is ...



Harper said...

to be honest that 690 IP is a real bias maker. You don't get to pitch roughly 3 1/2 seasons of ball unless you are pretty good. If you just look at that you get something like 40 pitchers and only 5 would be classified as bad during that stretch (and one of those is Livan!)

The thing that makes Lannan special is the age. You get a much greater range of ERA from the 690 IP guys who are older. My guess is when you are in your early to mid 20s you can't get away with being mediocre. They'll take a chance with someone else who might be special. In your late 20s and beyond you can be an "establshed innings eater"

Donald said...

One slight caveat -- You don't get to pitch roughly 3 1/2 seasons of ball unless you are pretty good [or you are on a team losing 100 games and throwing out starters that are far worse...]

I'm not sure Lannan would have started so many games in SF, Atl, Boston, etc.

This isn't to take away much from Lannan. I think he's probably a solid #4 or #5 on a decent team. But he's not an elite prospect even given his age.