Nationals Baseball: The Zimmermann game

Wednesday, April 18, 2012

The Zimmermann game

0,1,2,0,1,1

Those are the number of runs scored by the Nationals at the time Jordan Zimmermann exited his last 6 games.  The Nats did score 4, 5, and 6 runs before the measley 1 run they scored last night so it seemed like the offense was getting to a nice average place. They are up against Lucas Harell tonight. He threw a solid shutout in his first game, but was roughed up a bit in game 2.  A pitch to contact sinkerballer - when he has control he can be tough, when he doesn't it's lights out early.

I'm going to set the over under at 1.5 runs.  Do you think the Nats will score more or less for Jordan Zimmermann by the time he exits the game tonight?  Game on!

26 comments:

Anonymous said...

Interesting how little credit (love?) Lannon got for pitching well when the team wasn't scoring any runs for him.

Ben said...

I'll take the over ... but only because this time they will have THREE weak fly balls dropped in a row

Froggy said...

I say 'over' and we score 3 for Jordan.

Who da thunk that 12 games into the season the Nats pitching would be:

1st in ERA at 1.91

1st in Quality Starts w 8 (wasn't that last season's total?)

2nd in WHIP with 1.04 (crazy)

1st in BAA at .191

Bryan said...

I, too, am going to go with the over, though a little (large?) part of me thinks ZNN is cursed the same way Hamels is.

My logic for taking the over is that after scoring 1 run last night the team should score more tonight (gambler's fallacy!) combined with the fact that they seemed to be hitting an offensive stride (some kind of fallacy!) and the fact that Harell can be hit (wishful thinking!).

Bryan said...

Froggy -

Why the "who da thunk"? Granted being 1st or 2nd in all four categories is a bit of a surprise, but we knew going in this team had the potential to have a very good pitching staff. Through the first 12 games the staff has met or exceeded expectations.

I'm not surprised by the pitching, which I somewhat expected, but the fact that the team is 9-3.

Nattydread said...

Over. I expect 4 runs this evening.

Z-CatManor said...

I'm going with "Over" and I'm taking 7 runs. My prediction is not based on any form of statistical formula, I just got a feeling. I tend to think his lack of run support is merely an anomaly, and just the luck of the draw or lack there of...

Froggy said...

Bryan,

I agree...meaning 9-3.

I thought the pitching staff would be good, the acquisition of Gio and Jackson made them much better than I was hoping for. Not to mention make Rizzo look like a genius...at least for the month of April.

otrain said...

ZNN strikes me as a make-your-own-luck type who will pitch lights out all game but also strikeout and/or GIDP in a key situation at the plate. Then, with two outs in the 7th, he will randomly lose focus for 3 minutes, walk the pitcher, groove a 1-0 fastball that gets dumped in the seats, and suddenly get pulled with the Nats down 2-1.

This is a hypothetical frankenstein of last year's O's/Guerrero game and last Friday's Reds game, but I do think there's something to it (as much as I love the guy).

Anonymous said...

I'm placing the over/under at May 25th when you admit that you were wrong and Gio is going to dominate every NL lineup he faces this season and contend for the Cy Young.

Harper said...

Anon - when the team is losing more than it's winning minor good things get overlooked to focus on all the bad stuff. Just the way it is.

Froggy/Bryan - yep pretty much the answer is everyone thought the pitching would be good, but noone thought it would be THIS good.

Z-CM - Oh surely it is just bad luck, but still it's kind of interesting. It's these kind of luck swings that can make Cy Young years or force guys to get dealt that shouldn't (not that ZNN is going anywhere)

otrain - something to it but most pitchers would have that situation go the same way except that last homer would only close the gap to 4-2. At least sometimes.

Anon - Hmmm? OK I'll admit I was "wrong" if he pitches with an ERA of around 2.50 or lower all year and is a CY Young candidate. But I DID like Gio to be a little better this year than last. It's Jackson I don't like.

Anonymous said...

I'll take the over just because two straight games with less than one run against this kind of pitching would be pretty bad, although I don't think Ryan Zim or Espinosa will get going for another few weeks. Also, what is going on with DeRosa?

Shane said...

Over, and he provides all the offense as well!

Harper said...

Looks like noone is taking the under... so I will. Me against the world!

JRinAustin said...

I'll take the over, not because the Nats are due in someone's imagination, but because they're playing the 'Stros

Natsochist said...

Under, because it's chilly and rainy, and they're facing a sinkerballer...and because someone has to take the bet!

BenDen said...

Taking the over because we'll (finally) get a homer tonight from one of the 3,4,5 hitters. Hopefully there's a duck or 2 on the pond when it happens

BenDen said...

^^ an almost 1:1 K/BB ratio should help the latter part of my prediction

Shane said...

Jordan Zimmermann must be a hugh a**hole because these guys simply will not hit for him. I am sitting here cussing up a storm. I want to turn the game off I am so mad at this team.
Why won't you hit 2012 Nats!

Shane said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Anonymous said...

Looks like the "under" wins. Another nail-biter at home.....

Chaos

michael k said...

oh, Zimmermann's out of the game? Ok, we can score now.

Literally it's like on queue.

Natsochist said...

Happy with the W, on the field and in the prediction. Although I'd much rather have had us kill the ball early for J-Zimm.

DezoPenguin said...

Can you win the Cy Young with an 0-4 record? 'Cause that's about what he's going to be this year if this keeps up! ^_- (Nice to see the win, though...the really scary thing is, with this rotation and this bullpen, 3 runs will probably be enough to win more than half of the Nats' games!)

Strasburger said...

under. I cheated.

Jill said...

In fact, it is even more the case with a young child, as it is new to the world and needs touch to provide security and warmth, in what is a foreign place for the newborn. Theres more to this than the aging of the Boom Generation, too. Nursing education has evolved previously from ritualistic into practical medical practices. It is projected that in time, they will be expected to hold a doctorate prior to becoming accepted into a nurse practitioner software. It wouldnt be long before you would be able to recover the cost of your nurse telephone triage service.