Nationals Baseball: Pitching, Pitching, Pitching, Pitching, Pitching, Pi..

Friday, August 31, 2012

Pitching, Pitching, Pitching, Pitching, Pitching, Pi..

Very early in the year, when the Nats pitching was looking like 4 Bob Gibsons and a Bob Welch (who was a pretty good pitcher mind you) I took at look at some of their stats. I was trying to see what was potentially "unsustainable".  That doesn't mean just outperforming, it means underperforming, too.  Months later the Nats pitching is still awesome (5 guys somewhere between Gibson and Welch) so I thought it would be interesting to revisit those same stats and see where we've ended up.

Ranges
These are values that can vary from pitcher to pitcher but in general fall within a defined range. There can be an outlier or two in any given year but they are rare and barely fall out of the expected range. With so few games left this year though, you can't say anything off will be corrected this season. Really it's more of a next season thing.  (rough past 2 year average in parenthesis)

BABIP (usually ranges from .250-.325)
Strasburg:  was .262, now .314 (.275)
Gio: was .228, now .277 (.280)
ZNN: was .200, now .280 (.270)
EJax: was .250, now .262 (.320)
Detwiler: was .238, now .265  (.272)

Strasburg, by this measure alone, is having some terrible luck and yet he's still usually awesome.  Gio, ZNN, and Detwiler are back around average. Jackson is way lower but it isn't an impossible number based on the usual ranges. Notice they are all pretty low but all within range. That's what Rizzo was going for getting talented groundball pitchers to go along with with great infield D. 

HR/FB  (6.0% - 13.0%)
Strasburg: was 0.0%, now 10.6%  (4.5%)
Gio: was 0.0%, now 6.7% (8.5%)
ZNN: was 4.2%, 9.0% (14%)
EJax: was 5.0%, now 11.9% (9.4%)
Detwiler:  was 9.1%, now 6.9%  (10.6%)

Everyone was sitting too low. Everyone came back to the pack. Strasburg's been hit more with this than we'd probably expect going forward.  That Detwiler number is a big reason he's doing so well.  He's getting to the edge of normal there.  

LOB% (66% - 80%)
Strasburg: was 82.5%, now 75.4% (71%)
Gio: was 80%, now 72.2% (77.5%)
ZNN: was 80.7%, now 80.7%  (73.3%)
EJax: was 51.3%, 75.8%  (72%)
Detwiler: was 73.5%, now 70.6% (78.7%)

Early on Jackson was getting screwed here, but things evened out for him helping him out alot. That ZNN number is high, but the rest are right on target.


Personal stats
Here what we want to see if anyone has improved enough in these stats to justify the change in results we are seeing on the field. There IS a range but it's very broad and frankly I think it's more telling to look at their stats last year. It's difficult to improve on something like BABIP or LOB%. but I like to believe you can for the below.  Let's see who held up over the year and is showing real improvement.

GB%
Strasburg:   was 42.9%, now 43.9% (42%)
Gio: was 52.7%, now 46.5% (48%)
ZNN: was 48.7%, now 44.7%  (44%)
EJax: was 51.1%, now 46.5% (46%)
Detwiler: was 64.3%, now 52.0%  (43%)

We aren't seeing the same great leaps here that we did early in the year, so the all-staff improvement dream is probably gone. Detwiler though might have. Yes his number is still high in large part to that crazy start we saw.  But since then he's probably in the 49% range. That's not as good but that's still an improvement over his past numbers.

K/9  BB/9
Strasburg: was 9.00 / 2.16, now 11.14 / 2.63 (11 /2) 
Gio: was 10.27 / 2.66, now 9.49 / 3.39 (8/4)
ZNN: was 5.33 / 0.67, now 6.65 / 1.79  (7.5 / 2.3)
EJax: was 9.47 / 1.42, now 7.92 / 2.79 (7.4 / 3)
Detwiler: was 8.44 / 2.25, now 5.62 / 2.44 (5.5 / 2.73)

A couple things pop out. Strasburg's walks have gotten worse. It's hard to complain when he was starting from the !!!!! position, but it looks like my early column thinking he might do things we've never seen before was jumping the gun a bit. On the flipside, Gio's K's have remained higher.  Now alot of that has to do with being in the NL now (he's struck out pitchers in 33 of 49 at bats) but you know what? He pitches in the NL now. Other things that might be worth following, both Gio's walk rate and ZNNs seems to show consistent improvement.

Take Aways

First thing - Those ranges are real things you must accept.  Everytime early in the season you say "This guys is doing X - he can't keep that up" someone will come back and say "No! He's gotten better/worse and he is doing this, this, and that now! He can keep it up!"  No. With the exception of ZNN LOB rate (which was only 0.7% above the range I set) everyone fit back into the normal pitcher ranges. Thousands of pitching seasons over dozens of years tells us one thing. You only make yourself look foolish if you don't agree.

As for the staff.  I see real improvement with Gio in particular, and in parts with Detwiler and ZNN. At the same time the last two have had their share of luck which makes me think they are slightly outproducing what would be reasonable to expect from them.  Same thing with Edwin, slightly lucky, though with no real improvement. (Though he'd spent most of his career being unlucky so it's not like I'm telling you he's a 4.50 pitcher in disguise).  Strasburg has been the unlucky one, and along with a real regression in control, that's cause him to underproduce.

But no one is getting REAL lucky (or real unlucky) so they deserve the spot they've earned as one of the top rotations (if not the top rotation) in the majors. What about next year?  Plenty of time to talk about that in the offseason.
 

604 comments:

1 – 200 of 604   Newer›   Newest»
Bryan said...

Harper, I gotta tell you: I've followed you since the O&M days and whether its because you've stepped up your game or the team is winning, I feel like your posts have hit another level.

I literally look forward to seeing a post from you in my RSS feed. Love the analysis in a sea of of baseball mysticism.

Thanks.

calindc said...

@Bryan

That's not how we praise Harper, we post on Anonymous and say mean things to him.

@Harper
EJax has to be the most up and down starter on the staff. Some games he looks like he's throwing BP at hitters and other games the hitters may as well be swinging rakes since they are chasing some beautifully deceptive pitches in the dirt. I know it all averages out, but damn Edwin, let us know which one of you is throwing that night.

cass said...

Take a look at the ERA leaders along with their BABIPs. Strasburg's a huge outlier.

One of these years, when Strasburg's BIP luck swings in the other direction, he's going to have a monster year with wins in the 20s, strikeouts in the 200s, and an ERA under 2. He might even win the MVP, though that seems to depend on how far into the 20s he can get his wins.

Might be interesting to speculate on who the Nats' first MVP will be - Harper? Zimmerman? Strasburg? Rendon??

calindc said...

@Cass

I'll take a stab at this one. I'll say a healthy (150ish games) Zimmerman is the Nats best shot. Harper/Rendon will need several more years of baseball under their belts to put up year-long consistent numbers and NL pitchers simply do not win MVP awards (last one was Gibson in '68 and the last 5 were all AL pitchers).

Harper said...

Bryan - Thanks for the compliments. (though its probably because the team is winning that you think it's better. I've honestly thought my entries haven't been that good lately so it goes to show me I have no idea.)

calindc- definitely. While he's got his share of great games (5 with a games score >70, ZNN-2, Gio-7, Stras-5) he also has his share of terrible games 4 under 30 (ZNN-0, Gio-1, Stras-2). And for those thinking big things because 2 of his last three starts were great, 2 of the three before that were bad. Gonna make an interesting playoff start or two.

Cass - yeah, if he can stay healthy, one year is going to line up perfectly for him and watch out. Something like 27-3, 2.05 ERA, 240 Ks.

cass / calindc - If they drop him in the lineup starting next year, I'd go with Bryce. He'll have those RBIs he needs to go along with the hype. I'd pick Strasburg over Zimmerman, too. You have to kind of catch a wave of interest to win the MVP and Zimms never been able to do that. (see any previous MVP vote)


Pig.Pen said...

First off, great article.

Second, I don't think Det is necessarily getting somewhat lucky. He had the one start in which he was obviously sick in Arizona that brought a lot of his numbers up, but he's had some other starts where I think he was left in there too long. I think he's capable of being a groundball pitcher who produces an inordinate number of groundballs, maybe even in that 55-60% GB% and with the Nats infield is able to go all Matt Cain on FIP and laugh at it mockingly.

Anonymous said...

Harper, whats your take on the Strasburg shutdown?

Jeff Hayes said...

Harper - The problem with your reasoning for dismissing Zimmerman as MVP is that he has always played for a woefully awful team. That's why he can't catch anyone's imagination.

I am the world's biggest Zimmerman fan, but I doubt he'll ever be the MVP for another reason. He simply hasn't put up the numbers to do it. Could he have a break-out year while on a team that wins enough to draw attention to him? Sure, but it seems doubtful.

I agree with your points on Harper. He seems far and away the most likely candidate. And as far as Strasburg, doesn't he have the talent to do what no one has done since 1968? With his talent, no inning restrictions, and a little more experience, he's capable.

Donald said...

I agree that Harper is the most likely MVP prospect. The winner tends to be someone who hits for power and average. While Zim does that well, he doesn't do that spectacularly. He averages around 25 homers and .290 over his career. If he hit 35 and .310 he'd have a chance given his glove but he'd have to do that in a year that Votto, Kemp, Stanton, Gonzalez, etc. didn't over shadow him. In a few years, Harper could be a 30/30 or even 40/40 guy with an average over .300.

blovy8 said...

The Z-Factor for Zim is the penchant he has for those walk-offs. If there's a year where several contenders' hitters have similar numbers, and the Nats are in a close race in September where he has a couple of those, it could be a defining story for a lot of sports writers voting. He has the great defensive reputation which he hasn't quite thrown away, and will also have the back story that he was here through the lean years as the best guy and deserves his due. Having said all that, if he actually DID have a healthy complete year, he can put up the .300/35/120 type of year to get discussed, he's not that old yet.

Froggy said...

Since your blog article is about 'Pitching...' it appears as though Davey Johnson has recieved his 'you be a good boy and go out there and tell the world that you support my decision to shut down Strasburg' marching orders from Rizzo...even though he is not onboard with it and doesn't understand the decision.

My question is: why do you not at LEAST reward the home town fans by having Stras make his last start at home??

Which Rizzo are we seeing: The classless, arrogant, totally out of touch with the loyal faithful fan, Rizzo at his zenith? Or does he come to his senses and do the right thing...

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