Nationals Baseball: The New Mythology

Wednesday, August 15, 2012

The New Mythology

Oh Boswell. I know some out there really liked this column and I can understand why.  It presents the Nats front office as any fan would love to see them. A group of guys ready to make all the right moves even if they have to flaunt convention to do so. But this is not the narrative of the Nats season, it's the mythology.  The Nats haven't blazed new ground or thumbed their noses at anything, rather they've charted the same course every other team has but they have done it better than most.

To me, this column is Boswell at his worst, falling in love with a situation, coming up with a story, then presenting the information and half-truths necessary to back that story up.  It brings back memories of 2005 where a team who succeeded early thanks to consistently good starting pitching and a lot of luck was transformed by the writings of Boz into a scrappy never-say-die squad led by a crafty veteran manager who had seen it all.   The Nats front office should be celebrated for what they've done.  We don't need to manufacture iconoclast status to do so.

Some choice quotes:

With “Moneyball” barely out of theaters, they are already several years down the road of giving scouts a “65-35” say over stat nerds in their decisions... “We’ll lean a different way.” 
Mythology : While the entire league was going crazy turning their teams over to computers, the Nats understood the true value of scouts and used stats, but in their proper place.

Narrative : There really isn't any way to dispute what Boz says because it's not based on any facts, just Rizzo stating the team is different than everyone else and has a 65/35 lean. There isn't a list out there of team's "scout/stat nerds percent influence".  I'm not denying that some teams did jump into the stat pool with both feet, but the general feeling (which is the best that anyone can do) is fully half the league's teams are still hesitant to put a lot of faith in statistics. Every team is trying to find the proper balance, the Nats may be among the half that continue to favor scouts more heavily. 
Why would you risk a 19-year-old in your lineup every day?
Mythology : Everyone thought Rizzo was crazy to bring up Bryce Harper and play him everyday.

Narrative : Everyone thought it was a gamble, even Rizzo (he admitted it wasn't optimal developmentally), but most people thought given the Nats situation (injured offense but on top of a NL East with a bad looking Phillies team) that it was a low-risk gamble worth taking.
Why don’t you want Adam Dunn, at any price,
Mythology : The Nats were so ready to move forward they would part with an All-Star slugging player without a second thought.

Narrative : The Nats did want to move forward and understood that signing Dunn to a 4-year deal when he was already best suited for DH was a bad move. Still it was reported by most reputable sources that they offered him a 3 year 30+ million dollar deal. They understood he had value, not just 4-year value for a NL team.
or Prince Fielder for a market price?
Mythology : The Nats would take a bargain on Prince, hoping he'd see what the Nats were building and come here anyway, but market price is for fools.

Narrative : This one is dependent on what you think market price was.  If you think it was what he signed for then Boz's point is fair. If you think, like I do, it is what most teams were willing to pay, then Boz is probably off.  The Nats were supposedly in it until the end meaning they probably put out 5-7 years and a ton of money at Prince, but ended up balking at extending the contract further. The Dodgers, Blue Jays, Rangers all seemed to follow the same thought process. The Tigers more or less, went above market to ensure that he would sign with them, much like the Nats did for Werth.
They signed amateur free agents Strasburg, Bryce Harper, Anthony Rendon, Matt Purke, Alex Meyer and Brian Goodwin for record prices, sometimes shattering previous marks by 50 percent or more. Lerner gave the “go” and Rizzo executed.
Mythology : The Nats bucked the establishment and paid big money for their draft picks. 

Narrative : Several teams were doing this, particularly the cash strapped teams that saw this as a cheaper way to becoming competitive. The Pirates in fact outspent the Nats in the usual time frame examined. Kansas City, Boston, Baltimore, Tampa, etc were all doing it.  The Nats were on the forefront but they weren't out alone bucking convention. Plus their status as #2 spenders had a lot to do with drafting two generational talents in back to back years.  
When MLB changed those rules, the Nats still blew up the new slot system this year by drafting “unsignable” Lucas Giolito — the teenager with the 100-mph fastball. They convinced him he’d be happy as a Nat and, come hell or high water, they’d treat his already sore elbow with as much respect and restraint as they had Zimmermann and Strasburg. He signed.
Mythology : MLB changed the system but the Nats went again went against the establishment and drafted a guy that they'd need to pay out to do so.  But really he came because the Nats convinced him that they were special.

Narrative : The Nats did go against what the MLB was hoping teams would do, but so did several teams (Cubs, Red Sox).  The new rules didn't kill the old bonus system outright, rather offered teams a choice. You could still draft a guy in round 1 that you have to pay a ton for but you'll have to draft other guys you don't to make up for it.  That is exactly what the Nats did offering Lucas #5-#7 draft pick money. Given his arm situation, it was a lot of money, too much so, to turn down.
Few thought Jayson Werth was worth $126 million, especially when much of the money was to bring attitude, swagger and professionalism. Now the Nats have swagger, Natitude and professionalism.
Mythology :  Werth is worth the money because of the attitude he brought to the team

Narrative : Werth is still crazily overpaid and is set to make even more for five more seasons.  The attitude and swagger you see with the Nats is the effect of winning, not the cause. The professionalism has more to do with the organization, Rizzo, Johnson, et al. than an OF that played horribly last year and can't stay on the field this one.
Everybody, including me, thought they should sign Dunn and Josh Willingham to multiyear contract extensions in 2010. Both are having big years, but Rizzo wanted better defense along with his offense. He got it.
Mythology : While everyone wanted Dunn and Willingham back the Nats parted ways with them looking for better defense.

Narrative : This one... this one is really close to true. On Dunn, well as you heard earlier they did try to get Dunn back, so that part isn't exactly true, but a big part of the reason they wouldn't budge on the 4th year was his inability to play first. Willingham too was traded in good part because of his defense, but the Nats ended up with Mike Morse in left, who's no gold glover himself.  They have Bryce probably out of position in center. The truth is they understand there's a balance, and will trade off defense for offense, while trying to get both despite what fans want. Which is what most, if not all, organizations would do nowawdays.
Everybody, including me, said they should sign free agent Mark Buerhle and, if they failed, deal for a well-known veteran starter like Zack Greinke. Instead, they traded four prospects for lesser-known, joyful Gio Gonzalez, who has been exactly the vibrant personality that the Nats needed to enliven their gifted but dry-to-droll rotation.
Mythology : The Nats traded for Gio to enliven their rotation despite eveyrone thinking signing a guy was the better move.

Narrative :  Most of us talking about signing guys didn't really know Gio was available. I'm not sure what we would have thought if we had known that and the price the Nats would have to pay. It was a fair deal but most people overvalue their own prospects. I'm guessing this one would have ended up close to what Boz says, with most people saying the Nats should have just signed someone and kept all those prospects, with a vocal minority liking Gio

As for the liveliness, I'm not sure the Nats needed that as much as another great pitcher. Greinke would have probably had the Nats exactly where they are now.  Buerhle a game or two behind.  That's not counting what having Tommy Milone and Derek Norris in the rotation and behind the plate would have done (mainly because it wouldn't have made much of a difference other than possibly saving the Nats a few Wang starts)
When Manager Jim Riggleman pulled a midseason stickup for a contract extension, Rizzo let him quit. He talked Johnson back into the driver’s seat and took heat for his insensitivity toward the hometown Riggleman. Yes, 14 months ago, Rizzo was called a short-fuse bumbler.
Mythology : Rizzo handled the Riggleman situation perfectly letting the manager walk when he was unhappy.

Narrative : Rizzo was a short-fuse bumbler when it came to this. Boswell said it himself - Rizzo doesn't care what people think and this episode is one that proves it. He decided early in the season that Riggleman was not his guy and then refused to talk to Riggleman about it because either he or Davey or he and Davey didn't want Johnson as the manager until 2013.  A fair conversation with Riggleman would have probably ended up in the same place (Riggleman walking away when Rizzo says this is your last year, Johnson taking his place) with Rizzo looking a lot better for it.

 
This is NOT a takedown of the Nats front office. They deserve celebrating. The Nats have the best record in baseball.  They could be on their way to winning the NL pennant just a few years removed from 59 win seasons. It is an amazing turnaround that shows how the front office has managed the draft, the minors, and the free agent market with a great level of skill. You'd be hard-pressed not to consider them among the finest in the majors. We don't need to make men into myths to tell this story.
 

89 comments:

Clip&Store said...

i agree for the most part the he overblew some things to make it sound like our front office is a bunch of like hidden geniuses. But i do agree with Bos that the nats definitely are not afraid to shy away from conventional thinking that most people seem to have.

Harper said...

Clip&Store - I'd say more they aren't afraid to take calculated thought out gambles which stands out a bit in a conservative industry. But the thinking behind those gambles isn't really unconventional, it's well known and in practice by a few others.

michael k said...

I read a Fangraphs interview with Rizzo where he said that not only do the Nats have their own stats staff, but that staff has invented their own statistics that no one else uses. 65/35 indeed.

Boz needs to stop making stuff up.

Anonymous said...

The difference is he is a fan of this team and you are a critic. In not one of your posts this year have I actually gotten the sense that you like the Nationals, you just analyze them. When you are a real fan of a team you beleive in them and end up writing sappy pieces like Bos does. I don't see that harm in that. This city and fanbase is still building an identity and more passion about this team shouldnt be discouraged. But you arent a Washington fan, you are just a critic.

Harper said...

mk - I guess they made up the 65/35 stats too? I actually agree with Rizzo on the part I cut out - that stats are generally easy to use once out there. The gains to be had right now are defensively and injury related, possibly projection systems in low minors or internationally. The hitting and pitching gains to be had in high minors and the majors are mostly for show and won't overcome general variation. Hmmm bit of a tangent I went on here.

Anon - That's pretty true. I do LIKE the Nationals. I'd like to see them do well. Boswell is a die-hard fan though who NEEDS them to do well, just like your average fan.

The harm? I don't think there's really any harm in this column. I just don't like things that cloud the truth. At times it can hurt the team because it can present a false face to the facts at hand, like the praising of Guzman in 2005 as a leader just by being on good teams in the past. Can that influence the re-signing of talent or the way a team thinks of itself? I don't know. Maybe.

I don't think Boswell should stop if he doesn't want to. Everyone can write whatever the hell they want and everyone can write whatever the hell they want in response.

calindc said...

"Everyone can write whatever the hell they want and everyone can write whatever the hell they want in response."

Wait...Wait...Wait. I can write about how I feel about the Yankees in this Blog?

Anon - I am a transplant myself (grew up an Angels fan), but the Nats are the team I watch, attend games, and buy merchandise from ( I have a Wilkerson, RZimm, and a Stras jersey). I read this blog because it's very level headed while still rooting for the home team. It's most certainly one of the more well-written Nats blogs out there.

@Harper - ....Yankees.......

Harper said...

calindc - sure you can, we can argue whether the Werth or A-Rod deal is worse (hint: It's the A-Rod deal)

calindc said...

@ Harper

How many Werth Jerseys have sold compared to A-Rod? At least they made some of that money back.

Matt said...

calindc -- all revenue from memorabilia (jerseys, etc) is shared equally among all 30 clubs. Now, if you'd said A-roid put a lot more butts in seats than Werth, well, I'd agree with you on that count.

calindc said...

WHAT!!! My Wilkerson jersey money went to Texas! Nooooo!!!!

The only butts that filled the seats for A-Rod are the women he dated/infected.....so yeah, that actually could be alot.

Kevin Rusch said...

Just once, I'd like to see someone put the Werth signing into perspective as the "overpay because you suck" tax.

We see this all the time. There's not a soul on earth (outside of Werth's agent, and probably not even him) who really thinks that Jayson Werth deserves to be paid $128M over 7 years. BUT, when every free agent was spurning your team because you've sucked, and when Zach "I hope you and Aaron Crow have long careers on the DL" Gerinke turns down a very good deal because of your record, the truth is have to write someone a very large check. It's like punitive damages -- the spill-the-coffee-on-your-junk lady doesn't deserve $50 million, but McDonalds has to pay that much money before they notice. And that check has to go somewhere.

The Nats had to pay a TON of money to someone decent to get free agents to notice that the Nats were serious. And they ended up paying superstar money to just an ordinary star to get it done.

And if you look at it that way, I'd say $60 million of Werth's deal is a back-payment of Suck Tax. The other $65M is 7 years of Werth. That's a fair deal. And then you can shut up about overpaying Werth -- I'm tired of hearing it.

Anonymous said...

This article achieved nothing valuable and Thomas Boswell is still 10x the columnist/reporter that you will ever be.

Stop being salty because the Nationals are better than the Yankees.

Mythical Monkey said...

I think there probably is one area where Rizzo and the Nats management are blowing against the wind of conventional wisdom and that's shutting Strasburg down, at least judging by all the visceral reactions ESPN seems to have no trouble digging up lately.

There was a quote from Boswell's online chat the other day that I thought was interesting (whether right or wrong, I couldn't say):

There is a passion in some of the analysis of Strasburg __from those with no particular interest in Washington baseball__ that tells me a nerve has been struck. What is that nerve? It's not anything about Strasburg.

Here's a thought: If the World Series is something that you can shrug off, if you can say "We won't risk an arm for a 10% shot at maybe a title," perhaps that threatens some people who have an unconscious vested interest in the Fall Classic being very, very, very important.

Maybe D.C. has a different slant because we did without a baseball team for 33 years and it didn't change a damn thing. The Cherry Blossoms still came out. Some people adopted, or semi-adopted the Orioles and some didn't. In all those years, I didn't meet one person in the Washington area who was DISTRAUGHT that there was no baseball. It would be great to get it back __a bonus. And a lot of people worked hard for it and are very happy that it returned. But baseball wasn't essential to a contented civic life.


In general, I enjoy reading Boswell, while keeping in mind that's he's an unabashed fan. But as with anything, you have to watch for yourself and try to triangulate on something that might be the "truth."

WiredHK said...

Anons - Can I ask a question? Why on earth does it matter if the writer is a fan, critic, a guy who hates the Nats, a guy who just loves baseball or a guy conducting a science experiment? If you find his analysis engaging and interesting, and his commentary worth considering, then come read the blog. If you prefer your Nats info come with a HUGE side of Nats-colored glasses, seriously, go somewhere else. I am sure there is plenty of that out there.

But coming here and perpetually bemoaning the fact the writer isn't a diehard Nats fan and doesn't write only glowing pieces about the team you like is annoying as hell. With all due respect, go away or stop commenting. What Harper writes makes you unhappy (why, I have no idea), so just don't come here. Pretty simple.

Pig.Pen said...

Harper:

I think you and Bos are both wrong. I think you're too hard on Rizzo and Co. and Bos is too much of a fanboy. That being said, any Nats fan who doesn't know that Boswell is essentially the team's PR department probably needs to have these things pointed out to them.

Rizzo has bucked conventional wisdom on a number of occasions, but he isn't necessarily some sort of Maverick genius. That being said, Rizzo has been a little lucky, but he's also been very good. He deserves a lot of credit for undoing the mess that Jim Bowden created, but he's not perfect and often does bumble his way through situations. Rizzo is in fact human.

blovy8 said...

Yeah, I know Boswell has kind of become a bit of the old-school sportswriter he rebelled against in the 80s, but I still remember him writing as well as anyone about baseball when he didn't even have a hometown team anymore. If he gets manic depressive about the team, I can sympathize. This isn't one of them, but every so often there's an elegant column that reminds me of the past, and he admits to being a little silly about it, which is still good.

Froggy said...

I was going to offer an attempt at a cogent comment on Boswell's article and Harper's analysis/comments, and try to make myself sound as 'inside baseball' sMaRt as them, but my second Bells Two Hearted IPA that I'm drinking over at Tonic in Foggy Bottom kicked in and now, I've decided reading the back and forth in the comments is much more fun.

But I do agree with @Kevin Rusch sort of that the Lerner's probably look at $60mil of Werth's contract as sunk cost for PR or interplayer perception management chum, and probably 'value' him at the other $65 million. Easy math from a purely business perspective.

That said, Harper you do pump out some good shit (read: critical analyis) for a non Nats fan sometimes.

Nattydread said...

Boswell is an amusement park ride. Of course its not real. But it is a thrill. There is some insightful stuff there, he did do his homework, and he arranged it well.

Yes, lots of myth-building and you caught him at his game. Still, baseball mythology is the stock and trade of sports writers.

I LIKE that Rizzo gets made into a hero in the same way that I LIKED Frank Howard and his Topps cards as a kid. Its entertainment. (Who plays Rizzo in the Nats movie made from the book that Mark Zuckerman is going to write about this season? Don't know but I'll go see it).

In fact, I don't want Rizzo to be a mortal. Don't want to meet him and find out that he's the ass he well might be. In my fantasy world, he's the hero I need.

So I thank Boswell for the ride --- and also you Mr. Harper for having fun shooting holes in his great piece. Its all fun.

Wally said...

What WiredHK said. Let me see - guy actually gives original thought to things, does some research, offers an interesting slant on a relevant topic to a team we all follow, and takes the time to write it up for all of us to read and comment on. Yeah, not sure why anyone would read that. We really need more of the same narratives repeated endlessly with minor word changes to avoid outright copying. Sign me up!

But Harper - you missed the best part of the story. What about the 'Rizzo was so pissed that they ignored his advice that he said that he would MAKE THEM FIRE HIM, until they did his deal'. Whoa, do tell.

But even with that, I like Boz. I almost always read his stuff. I find it entertaining, sometimes factual and pertinent, and I do think that there are a bunch of Nats officials that talk to him (Davey for sure).

Anonymous said...

Well said, Nattydread. Btw, I think Bruce Willis plays Rizzo after putting on some weight for the role.

Dustin said...

I don't have a problem with you disagreeing with Boz... but I think arguing the point on literary grounds really confuses the matter. "Narrative" is simply another word for story, and to contrast it with "mythology" makes it sound like you think narrative actually means "fact", which it doesn't.

I don't mean to get bogged down in semantics, but you're really blurring the lines between two entirely separate literary components here. Narrative isn't about facts or strict reporting of information. It's about what connections you choose to make between those facts. I've followed both you and Boz for a couple of years now. You're both very good story-tellers, with the primary difference being that (generally speaking) his stories are overly-optimistic while yours are overly-pessimistic. Personally, I love being able to get both versions, and do so quite regularly.

All I'm saying is that you can't pretend he's somehow misrepresenting the facts anymore than you are. You both possess (and report) the same facts... you just see different connections between them.

Tom said...

I think Bos can be over the top, but this post comes across like someone who just doesn't like him intentionally misreading his intent. I think most of us who are really familiar with the team know how Bos writes. Of course he's building his own narrative, and of course he comes back to the same themes again and again and tries to make things fit -- but so does every sports columnist. He's not a beat writer or a blogger or an analyst, his entire job is to provide an interesting narrative and a wider context that a lot of us (as fans) might miss. He bugs me sometimes and his arrogance can be off-putting, but I also have a lot of respect for his understanding of the sport -- and I like where he takes his narrative at least 50% of the team, which isn't a bad percentage.

Besides, even if he does exaggerate the Nats' iconoclastic tendencies, I've always thought Bos has an ulterior motive: he really wants DC to become a baseball town, because he absolutely loves baseball. Whether it's a narrative or a "mythology," when enough people start to buy in, it becomes a part of the town's sports culture, and even a part of the team culture. Maybe he thinks he's Oz. But even if he can't affect the team's character (or our perception of it) as much as he thinks, what player doesn't want to hear that he's part of a smart, unconventional team that does everything the right way?

(And I remember that Bos has also blasted the Nats front office quite a bit in the past, too.)

Harper said...

Kevin - sorry but I'm going to keep mentioning it. I don't think you're wrong - there is a suck tax, but that should mean you are going to have to offer more years (at the same $) or more dollars (for the same # of years) than other teams. The Nats outbid all other teams on years AND dollars. I just don't buy that they had to do both.

Anon - I'm not sure of the exact multiplier but yes Boz > Me. This article though made me feel better and I value that.

MM - Maybe They might be blowing against conventional non-thinking macho athletic bull but that not founded on any good science. I think most thinking men have no idea what the best move is so it's no the same thing as going against something we have some proof works way X.

Wired / Wally - Maybe they enjoy it? That's what I figure and if they have a good time finding Nats info that isn't positive and going after it, if that gives them a sense of purpose who am I to tell them to stop? I really do buy into what I said about anyone can write whatever they want - even trolls. (as long as it's not offensive)

PigPen - Too hard? I said they were great! Should I have said super great?

blovy8 - I think Boz would admit as much, that he's writing from the fans perspective more than an objective columnist and he still writes well. He certainly isn't a rebel anymore but that'll happen with age. Rebelling is tiring.

Froggy - Bells! While I think the Rizzo can talk the Lerner's into spending $, I don't think he could convince them to spend $60 mill on PR.

NattyDread - fair enough. Fun is fun. At the very least, even if I'm too old and crotchety for this stuff, I want the 10 yr olds reading the 3D webpaper on their iVu Goggles to have these heros.

Anon - if the movie is far enough in the future maybe Brad Pitt can play Rizzo too?

Dustin - gah I'll admit you got me on narrative/mythology. If this were a college paper I probably would have caught that, but I'm writing these things late at night and the editing is always going to suffer.

However I don't think I'm overly pessimistic and Boz really is misrepresenting some facts. Dunn almost certainly got a deal. Bryce's call-up was mostly praised. The Nats draft strategy was well-used and a few years from being THE draft strategy. On some of these thing, we may be looking at things with different views but on others he's just ignoring the reality that was.

Tom - I wouldn't go as far as to say I'm intentionally misreading him, but I am probably inclined to dislike him. That 2005 season was filled with column after column that were just WRONG. Saying things that didn't match up at all with the team in front of him, like we were watching two separate clubs. That certainly colored my opinion of the man.

That being said I've said a version of your "He wants DC to be a baseball town" statement several times. I've even imagined a deathbed Shirley Povich telling Boz to go easy on baseball teams here so they won't move away. I completely agree with you and I don't necessarily think that's a bad thing overall. That doesn't mean I'll personally be ok with the occasional misrepresentation of facts, though. I'll still write about it even though it's only really making me feel better.

WiredHK said...

Harper - I guess you have more patience than I do, because what I see is more personal attacks on you vs writing anything even remotely interesting or productive. The writer comes across as a child who doesn't care much about a good debate, but rather wants to simply insult you personally. But hey, it's your blog. :)

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